The bond market has sent a warning shot across the bow to President-elect Donald Trump. The day after the election, treasury yields spiked 15-20 basis points across the board on fears of increased deficits and an uptick in inflation under the new Trump administration. Going back to his days as a businessman, the president-elect is no stranger to debt, and neither is the U.S. Government. Since 2002, the United States has run annual deficits and there is no sign that this will change anytime soon.
Over the past 10 years, the annual deficits in the U.S. have gradually increased (with two outlier years during the pandemic), causing concerns for investors that the United States is taking on more debt than it can handle. The annual deficit for fiscal year 2024 was $1.83 trillion (yes, trillion with a “T”), up from $1.70 trillion the prior year and $410 billion 10 years ago. Total debt in the U.S. has ballooned to $35.46 trillion as of September 30, 2024, up from $12.25 trillion 10 years ago. That translates to U.S. debt reaching 120% of our GDP versus just 60% 10 years ago.
To add to the deficit issues, over the past two years as interest rates have risen from their historic lows the cost to refinance existing debt and to finance the annual deficit are rising. Annual interest expense for the United States now tops $1.1 trillion, more than double what it was just four years ago. As a percentage of tax receipts, interest expense is now 35%, up from 19.8% in the first quarter of 2022.
President-elect Trump has expressed interest in lowering taxes for many. Some of the proposed tax changes include lowering the corporate tax rate to 15%, making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent (enacted during his first term as president and set to expire at the start of 2026), making tips and overtime pay tax-free and reinstating SALT (the state and local tax deduction), to name a few. In addition, the president-elect has expressed interest in significant tariffs on foreign goods. While the hope of all of this is to drive production of goods back to the U.S. and increase growth to put more money in the pockets of the consumer, the end result is likely to be bigger deficits and higher inflation if all proposals issued on the campaign trail are enacted.
President-elect Trump’s policies have the potential to significantly impact the U.S. deficit and interest rates. While his proposed policies aim to stimulate growth, most economists consider them inflationary, at least in the short term. The bond market is keeping a close eye on the policies that are enacted and how they may impact the deficit and inflation. As a result, treasury yields are likely to experience significant volatility over the next several months. A laddered well-diversified bond portfolio across multiple asset classes within fixed income may help mute the volatility in yields as well as provide solid income to investors. Your advisor would be happy to discuss your fixed income exposure and how you can be better prepared for a potential increase in volatility.